Single poll

Civey poll of 14 June 2026 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
Augsburger Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
28 May 2026 to 12 Jun 2026
Respondents
5,000
Method
Online
  • CSU38.0%+1.0
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler12.0%±0
  • SPD6.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%±0
  • FDP2.0%±0
  • Others3.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Civey poll of 16 May 2026.

In this poll Civey has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 5,000 people were surveyed from 28 May 2026 to 12 Jun 2026, method Online, commissioned by Augsburger Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Civey poll of 16 May 2026, CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Civey has Freie Wähler 2.5 points higher and SPD 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jun 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler +2.5average 9.5
  • SPD -1.5average 7.5
  • CSU -1.0average 39.0
  • Grüne +1.0average 13.0
  • BSW +1.0average 2.0
  • AfD +0.5average 18.5
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
  • FDP ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 77 seatsAfD: 39 seatsGrüne: 28 seatsFreie Wähler: 24 seatsSPD: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU77
  • AfD39
  • Grüne28
  • Freie Wähler24
  • SPD12
  • CSU + AfD116 of 180
  • CSU + Grüne105 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler101 of 180
  • AfD + Grüne + Freie Wähler91 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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