Single poll

INSA poll of 18 September 2025 for the Brandenburg state election

Commissioned by
Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR)
Fieldwork period
9 to 16 Sep 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • AfD34.0%+5.0
  • SPD24.0%-1.0
  • CDU13.0%-4.0
  • Linke9.0%+4.0
  • BSW9.0%-4.0
  • Grüne4.0%+1.0
  • FDP2.0%±0
  • BVB/FW2.0%±0
  • Others3.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jan 2025.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 34.0%, followed by SPD on 24.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 16 Sep 2025, method Online, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR).

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jan 2025, AfD gains 5.0 points, CDU loses 4.0 points, Linke gains 4.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Sep 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.0average 32.0
  • SPD +1.0average 23.0
  • CDU -1.0average 14.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 5.0
  • Linke ±0average 9.0
  • BSW ±0average 9.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.

AfD: 33 seatsSPD: 24 seatsCDU: 13 seatsLinke: 9 seatsBSW: 9 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD33
  • SPD24
  • CDU13
  • Linke9
  • BSW9
  • AfD + SPD57 of 88
  • AfD + CDU46 of 88
  • AfD + Linke + BSW51 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Linke46 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + BSW46 of 88
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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