INSA poll of 15 January 2026 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Nordkurier
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 14 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD34.0%±0
- SPD25.0%+1.0
- CDU13.0%±0
- Linke8.0%-1.0
- BSW8.0%-1.0
- Grüne5.0%+1.0
- Others7.0%+4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Sep 2025.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 34.0%, followed by SPD on 25.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 9 to 14 Jan 2026, method Online, commissioned by Nordkurier.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Sep 2025, SPD gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 3.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.0average 22.0
- AfD -1.0average 35.0
- CDU -1.0average 14.0
- Linke -1.0average 9.0
- BSW +1.0average 7.0
- Grüne ±0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD32
- SPD24
- CDU12
- Linke8
- BSW7
- Grüne5
- AfD + SPD56 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke52 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW51 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne49 of 88
- AfD + Linke + BSW47 of 88
- AfD + Linke + Grüne45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.