Single poll

Forsa poll of 11 January 2024 for the Brandenburg state election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
6 to 10 Jan 2024
Respondents
1,007
Method
Online
  • AfD32.0%+15.0
  • SPD22.0%-6.0
  • CDU16.0%+2.0
  • Grüne7.0%-4.0
  • Linke6.0%-5.0
  • BVB/FW5.0%-3.0
  • BSW4.0%
  • FDP3.0%-3.0
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 20 Dec 2021.

In this poll Forsa has AfD ahead on 32.0%, followed by SPD on 22.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 6 to 10 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 20 Dec 2021, AfD gains 15.0 points, SPD loses 6.0 points, Linke loses 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has SPD 1.5 points lower and Linke 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.5average 23.5
  • Linke -1.5average 7.5
  • BVB/FW -1.0average 6.0
  • Grüne -0.3average 7.3
  • FDP -0.3average 3.3
  • CDU +0.2average 15.8
  • AfD ±0average 32.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.

AfD: 32 seatsSPD: 22 seatsCDU: 16 seatsGrüne: 7 seatsLinke: 6 seatsBVB/FW: 5 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD32
  • SPD22
  • CDU16
  • Grüne7
  • Linke6
  • BVB/FW5
  • AfD + SPD54 of 88
  • AfD + CDU48 of 88
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke45 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Grüne45 of 88
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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