INSA poll of 17 January 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR)
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 15 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%±0
- CDU18.0%±0
- SPD17.0%-4.0
- BSW13.0%
- Grüne8.0%-1.0
- Linke6.0%-4.0
- BVB/FW4.0%-1.0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Plus Brandenburg1.0%
- Others2.0%-4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Jul 2023.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 8 to 15 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR).
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Jul 2023, SPD loses 4.0 points, Linke loses 4.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 9.0 points higher and SPD 6.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +9.0average 4.0
- SPD -6.0average 23.0
- AfD -4.0average 32.0
- CDU +2.2average 15.8
- BVB/FW -1.7average 5.7
- Linke -1.0average 7.0
- Grüne +0.8average 7.2
- FDP -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD27
- SPD17
- CDU17
- BSW13
- Grüne8
- Linke6
- AfD + SPD + CDU61 of 88
- AfD + SPD + BSW57 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW57 of 88
- AfD + SPD + Grüne52 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne52 of 88
- AfD + SPD + Linke50 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke50 of 88
- AfD + BSW + Grüne48 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW47 of 88
- AfD + BSW + Linke46 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.