INSA poll of 4 July 2023 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 26 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%+3.0
- SPD21.0%±0
- CDU18.0%-1.0
- Linke10.0%±0
- Grüne9.0%-1.0
- BVB/FW5.0%±0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 Apr 2023.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 26 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 Apr 2023, AfD gains 3.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 3.7 points higher and SPD 2.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +3.7average 24.3
- SPD -2.2average 23.2
- BVB/FW -1.5average 6.5
- CDU -1.0average 19.0
- Linke +1.0average 9.0
- FDP -1.0average 4.0
- Grüne -0.3average 9.3
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD27
- SPD20
- CDU17
- Linke10
- Grüne9
- BVB/FW5
- AfD + SPD47 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke54 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne53 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BVB/FW49 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Linke47 of 88
- AfD + Linke + Grüne46 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Grüne46 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.