Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 13 September 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- ZDF-Politbarometer
- Fieldwork period
- 10 to 12 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,060
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD29.0%+8.0
- SPD26.0%+4.0
- CDU15.0%-1.5
- BSW14.0%
- Grüne5.0%-9.5
- Linke3.0%-11.0
- BVB/FW3.0%-1.0
- Others5.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Aug 2019.
In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 26.0%. 1,060 people were surveyed from 10 to 12 Sep 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.
Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Aug 2019, Linke loses 11.0 points, Grüne loses 9.5 points, AfD gains 8.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has SPD 3.8 points higher and AfD 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +3.8average 22.2
- AfD +2.0average 27.0
- CDU -1.7average 16.7
- BVB/FW -1.3average 4.3
- Linke -1.2average 4.2
- BSW -0.8average 14.8
- Grüne ±0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD28
- SPD26
- CDU15
- BSW14
- Grüne5
- AfD + SPD54 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW57 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW55 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
- AfD + BSW + Grüne47 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Grüne46 of 88
- SPD + BSW + Grüne45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.