Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 19 September 2024 for the Brandenburg state election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
18 to 19 Sep 2024
Respondents
1,118
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD28.0%-1.0
  • SPD27.0%+1.0
  • CDU14.0%-1.0
  • BSW13.0%-1.0
  • Grüne4.5%-0.5
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • BVB/FW3.5%+0.5
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 13 Sep 2024.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 27.0%. 1,118 people were surveyed from 18 to 19 Sep 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 13 Sep 2024, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -1.7average 15.7
  • SPD +1.2average 25.8
  • BVB/FW -0.8average 4.3
  • Linke +0.5average 3.5
  • Grüne +0.3average 4.2
  • AfD +0.2average 27.8
  • BSW ±0average 13.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.

AfD: 30 seatsSPD: 29 seatsCDU: 15 seatsBSW: 14 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD30
  • SPD29
  • CDU15
  • BSW14
  • AfD + SPD59 of 88
  • AfD + CDU45 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + BSW58 of 88
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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