Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 14 August 2023 for the Brandenburg state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
10 to 14 Aug 2023
Respondents
1,003
Method
Online
  • AfD30.0%+4.0
  • SPD25.0%+1.5
  • CDU15.0%-2.0
  • Linke8.0%±0
  • Grüne7.0%-2.0
  • BVB/FW7.0%+0.5
  • FDP2.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Mar 2023.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 30.0%, followed by SPD on 25.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 10 to 14 Aug 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 Mar 2023, AfD gains 4.0 points, CDU loses 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 5.0 points higher and CDU 4.3 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +5.0average 25.0
  • CDU -4.3average 19.3
  • SPD +2.7average 22.3
  • Grüne -2.3average 9.3
  • FDP -2.0average 4.0
  • Linke -1.7average 9.7
  • BVB/FW +1.0average 6.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.

AfD: 29 seatsSPD: 24 seatsCDU: 14 seatsGrüne: 7 seatsLinke: 7 seatsBVB/FW: 7 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD29
  • SPD24
  • CDU14
  • Grüne7
  • Linke7
  • BVB/FW7
  • AfD + SPD53 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne50 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + Linke50 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + BVB/FW50 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Grüne45 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Linke45 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + BVB/FW45 of 88
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.