Single poll

Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 13 March 2023 for the Brandenburg state election

Commissioned by
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
Fieldwork period
7 to 13 Mar 2023
Respondents
978
Method
Online
  • AfD26.0%±0
  • SPD23.5%-2.5
  • CDU17.0%+3.5
  • Grüne9.0%-1.0
  • Linke8.0%±0
  • BVB/FW6.5%-0.5
  • FDP3.0%-0.5
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Nov 2022.

In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by SPD on 23.5%. 978 people were surveyed from 7 to 13 Mar 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.

Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 25 Nov 2022, CDU gains 3.5 points, SPD loses 2.5 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 2.0 points higher and BVB/FW 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Mar 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.0average 24.0
  • BVB/FW +1.8average 4.7
  • FDP -1.7average 4.7
  • Linke -1.3average 9.3
  • SPD -0.8average 24.3
  • Grüne -0.7average 9.7
  • CDU -0.3average 17.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.

AfD: 25 seatsSPD: 23 seatsCDU: 17 seatsGrüne: 9 seatsLinke: 8 seatsBVB/FW: 6 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • AfD25
  • SPD23
  • CDU17
  • Grüne9
  • Linke8
  • BVB/FW6
  • AfD + SPD48 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne51 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + Linke50 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Grüne49 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + BVB/FW48 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Linke48 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + BVB/FW46 of 88
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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