Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 November 2023 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 24 Oct 2023 to 1 Nov 2023
- Respondents
- 1,017
- Method
- Online
- AfD32.0%+2.0
- SPD27.0%+2.0
- CDU13.5%-1.5
- Linke7.0%-1.0
- Grüne6.5%-0.5
- BVB/FW6.0%-1.0
- FDP2.5%+0.5
- Others5.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 14 Aug 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 32.0%, followed by SPD on 27.0%. 1,017 people were surveyed from 24 Oct 2023 to 1 Nov 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 14 Aug 2023, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 5.3 points higher and CDU 4.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +5.3average 21.7
- CDU -4.2average 17.7
- AfD +4.0average 28.0
- Linke -3.0average 10.0
- Grüne -2.5average 9.0
- FDP -1.2average 3.7
- BVB/FW -0.3average 6.3
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD30
- SPD26
- CDU13
- Linke7
- Grüne6
- BVB/FW6
- AfD + SPD56 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke50 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne49 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BVB/FW49 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Linke46 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Grüne45 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BVB/FW45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.