Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 8 April 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Mar 2024 to 7 Apr 2024
- Respondents
- 1,100
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD27.0%-5.0
- SPD21.0%-6.0
- CDU15.0%+1.5
- BSW9.5%
- Grüne7.0%+0.5
- Linke5.5%-1.5
- BVB/FW5.5%-0.5
- FDP2.0%-0.5
- Others7.5%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Nov 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 28 Mar 2024 to 7 Apr 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 2 Nov 2023, SPD loses 6.0 points, AfD loses 5.0 points, CDU gains 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU 2.5 points lower and AfD 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Apr 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU -2.5average 17.5
- AfD -1.5average 28.5
- BSW +1.5average 8.0
- Linke -1.0average 6.5
- BVB/FW +1.0average 4.5
- FDP -1.0average 3.0
- SPD +0.5average 20.5
- Grüne -0.5average 7.5
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD26
- SPD21
- CDU15
- BSW9
- Grüne7
- Linke5
- BVB/FW5
- AfD + SPD47 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW50 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke46 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BVB/FW46 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.