Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 June 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 23 Jun 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD29.0%+2.0
- BSW17.0%+7.5
- CDU16.5%+1.5
- SPD16.0%-5.0
- BVB/FW5.5%±0
- Grüne5.0%-2.0
- Linke3.5%-2.0
- FDP1.5%-0.5
- Others6.0%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 8 Apr 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by BSW on 17.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 15 to 23 Jun 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 8 Apr 2024, BSW gains 7.5 points, SPD loses 5.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has BSW 5.5 points higher and SPD 4.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Jun 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +5.5average 11.5
- SPD -4.5average 20.5
- AfD +3.5average 25.5
- Grüne -2.5average 7.5
- Linke -2.5average 6.0
- CDU -2.0average 18.5
- BVB/FW +1.5average 4.0
- FDP -1.5average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD29
- BSW17
- SPD16
- CDU16
- Grüne5
- BVB/FW5
- AfD + BSW46 of 88
- AfD + SPD45 of 88
- AfD + CDU45 of 88
- BSW + SPD + CDU49 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.