Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 5 September 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Aug 2024 to 5 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,420
- Method
- Online
- AfD30.0%+1.0
- SPD20.5%+4.5
- CDU15.0%-1.5
- BSW14.5%-2.5
- Grüne5.5%+0.5
- BVB/FW4.5%-1.0
- Linke3.5%±0
- FDP1.0%-0.5
- Others5.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 Jun 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 30.0%, followed by SPD on 20.5%. 1,420 people were surveyed from 28 Aug 2024 to 5 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 24 Jun 2024, SPD gains 4.5 points, BSW loses 2.5 points, CDU loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 4.5 points higher and CDU 3.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +4.5average 25.5
- CDU -3.5average 18.5
- BSW -1.5average 16.0
- FDP -1.5average 2.5
- SPD -1.0average 21.5
- BVB/FW +1.0average 3.5
- Linke -1.0average 4.5
- Grüne +0.5average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD31
- SPD21
- BSW15
- CDU15
- Grüne6
- AfD + SPD52 of 88
- AfD + BSW46 of 88
- AfD + CDU46 of 88
- SPD + BSW + CDU51 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.