Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 September 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 18 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 982
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.5%-1.5
- SPD26.5%+6.0
- CDU15.0%±0
- BSW12.0%-2.5
- BVB/FW4.5%±0
- Grüne4.0%-1.5
- Linke3.5%±0
- FDP1.0%±0
- Others5.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 5 Sep 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD ahead on 28.5%, followed by SPD on 26.5%. 982 people were surveyed from 11 to 18 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 5 Sep 2024, SPD gains 6.0 points, BSW loses 2.5 points, AfD loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has FDP 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP -1.5average 2.5
- BSW -1.3average 13.3
- AfD +0.8average 27.7
- SPD +0.5average 26.0
- BVB/FW +0.5average 4.0
- CDU -0.3average 15.3
- Grüne -0.3average 4.3
- Linke -0.2average 3.7
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD31
- SPD28
- CDU16
- BSW13
- AfD + SPD59 of 88
- AfD + CDU47 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW57 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.