Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 September 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 21 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 940
- Method
- Online
- SPD28.0%+1.5
- AfD27.0%-1.5
- CDU13.5%-1.5
- BSW12.5%+0.5
- BVB/FW4.5%±0
- Grüne4.0%±0
- Linke3.5%±0
- FDP0.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 Sep 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 27.0%. 940 people were surveyed from 17 to 21 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 19 Sep 2024, SPD gains 1.5 points, AfD loses 1.5 points, CDU loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has SPD 2.0 points higher and FDP 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +2.0average 26.0
- FDP -2.0average 2.5
- CDU -1.8average 15.3
- BSW -0.8average 13.3
- AfD -0.7average 27.7
- BVB/FW +0.5average 4.0
- Grüne -0.3average 4.3
- Linke -0.2average 3.7
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- SPD30
- AfD29
- CDU15
- BSW14
- SPD + AfD59 of 88
- SPD + CDU45 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW58 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.