INSA poll of 24 May 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR)
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 21 May 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- AfD25.0%±0
- SPD19.0%±0
- CDU19.0%±0
- BSW13.0%+1.0
- Grüne7.0%-1.0
- Linke6.0%-1.0
- BVB/FW5.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Others3.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Apr 2024.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 25.0%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 13 to 21 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung (MAZ) / Märkische Oderzeitung (MOZ) / Lausitzer Rundschau (LR).
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 Apr 2024, BSW gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 5.2 points higher and AfD 3.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 24 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +5.2average 7.8
- AfD -3.3average 28.3
- SPD -2.7average 21.7
- CDU +2.7average 16.3
- BVB/FW +0.5average 4.5
- FDP +0.5average 2.5
- Grüne -0.3average 7.3
- Linke +0.2average 5.8
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD23
- SPD18
- CDU18
- BSW12
- Grüne6
- Linke6
- BVB/FW5
- AfD + SPD + CDU59 of 88
- AfD + SPD + BSW53 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW53 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW48 of 88
- AfD + SPD + Grüne47 of 88
- AfD + SPD + Linke47 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne47 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke47 of 88
- AfD + SPD + BVB/FW46 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BVB/FW46 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.