INSA poll of 16 July 2024 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 15 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD24.0%-1.0
- SPD19.0%±0
- CDU18.0%-1.0
- BSW17.0%+4.0
- Grüne7.0%±0
- Linke5.0%-1.0
- BVB/FW4.0%-1.0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Others3.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 May 2024.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 24.0%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 8 to 15 Jul 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 24 May 2024, BSW gains 4.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, CDU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.0 points lower and SPD 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.0average 26.0
- SPD +1.5average 17.5
- Linke +1.2average 3.8
- Grüne +1.0average 6.0
- FDP +0.7average 2.3
- BSW +0.5average 16.5
- BVB/FW -0.3average 4.3
- CDU +0.2average 17.8
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- AfD23
- SPD18
- CDU18
- BSW17
- Grüne7
- Linke5
- AfD + SPD + CDU59 of 88
- AfD + SPD + BSW58 of 88
- AfD + CDU + BSW58 of 88
- SPD + CDU + BSW53 of 88
- AfD + SPD + Grüne48 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
- AfD + BSW + Grüne47 of 88
- AfD + SPD + Linke46 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke46 of 88
- AfD + BSW + Linke45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.