Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 August 2024 for the Saxony state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 10 to 18 Aug 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU34.5%+3.0
- AfD30.0%-1.0
- BSW14.0%+0.5
- SPD5.0%-1.0
- Grüne4.5%-2.0
- Linke4.5%+1.5
- FDP1.0%-0.5
- Others6.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 Mar 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 34.5%, followed by AfD on 30.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 10 to 18 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 Mar 2024, CDU gains 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points, Linke gains 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU 3.2 points higher and Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU +3.2average 31.3
- Grüne -1.5average 6.0
- SPD -1.0average 6.0
- FDP -1.0average 2.0
- Linke +0.7average 3.8
- AfD -0.5average 30.5
- BSW +0.5average 13.5
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.
- CDU50
- AfD43
- BSW20
- SPD7
- CDU + AfD93 of 120
- CDU + BSW70 of 120
- AfD + BSW63 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.