Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 31 August 2024 for the Saxony state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 31 Aug 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU33.0%-1.5
- AfD31.0%+1.0
- BSW13.5%-0.5
- SPD6.0%+1.0
- Grüne5.5%+1.0
- Linke3.0%-1.5
- Others8.0%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Aug 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 31.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 26 to 31 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 21 Aug 2024, CDU loses 1.5 points, Linke loses 1.5 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU +1.2average 31.8
- Linke -0.8average 3.8
- SPD -0.5average 6.5
- Grüne -0.3average 5.8
- AfD +0.2average 30.8
- BSW +0.2average 13.3
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.
- CDU45
- AfD42
- BSW18
- SPD8
- Grüne7
- CDU + AfD87 of 120
- CDU + BSW63 of 120
- AfD + BSW + SPD68 of 120
- AfD + BSW + Grüne67 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.