Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 17 March 2024 for the Saxony state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 15 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 1,200
- Method
- Online
- CDU31.5%-2.0
- AfD31.0%-1.0
- BSW13.5%
- Grüne6.5%+0.5
- SPD6.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%-5.5
- FDP1.5%-1.0
- Others7.0%-3.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 11 Jan 2024.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 31.5%, followed by AfD on 31.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 6 to 15 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 11 Jan 2024, Linke loses 5.5 points, CDU loses 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has BSW 7.5 points higher and AfD 4.3 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 17 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +7.5average 6.0
- AfD -4.3average 35.3
- Linke -3.0average 6.0
- Grüne -0.8average 7.3
- CDU +0.5average 31.0
- FDP -0.5average 2.0
- SPD +0.3average 5.7
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.
- CDU43
- AfD42
- BSW18
- Grüne9
- SPD8
- CDU + AfD85 of 120
- CDU + BSW61 of 120
- AfD + BSW + Grüne69 of 120
- AfD + BSW + SPD68 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.