Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 11 January 2024 for the Saxony state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 2 to 9 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 970
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU33.5%+5.0
- AfD32.0%-0.5
- Linke8.5%+1.0
- SPD7.0%-1.5
- Grüne6.0%+0.5
- FDP2.5%-1.5
- Others10.5%-3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 10 Nov 2023.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 33.5%, followed by AfD on 32.0%. 970 people were surveyed from 2 to 9 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 10 Nov 2023, CDU gains 5.0 points, SPD loses 1.5 points, FDP loses 1.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 3.5 points lower and CDU 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -3.5average 35.5
- CDU +2.0average 31.5
- SPD +2.0average 5.0
- Linke +1.5average 7.0
- Grüne -1.5average 7.5
- FDP +0.5average 2.0
Seat projection from this poll
120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.
- CDU46
- AfD44
- Linke12
- SPD10
- Grüne8
- CDU + AfD90 of 120
- CDU + Linke + SPD68 of 120
- CDU + Linke + Grüne66 of 120
- AfD + Linke + SPD66 of 120
- CDU + SPD + Grüne64 of 120
- AfD + Linke + Grüne64 of 120
- AfD + SPD + Grüne62 of 120
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.