Single poll

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 9 August 2024 for the Saxony state election

Commissioned by
ZDF-Politbarometer
Fieldwork period
5 to 8 Aug 2024
Respondents
1,003
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU34.0%+2.0
  • AfD30.0%+5.5
  • BSW11.0%
  • SPD6.0%-2.5
  • Grüne6.0%-5.0
  • Linke4.0%-10.0
  • Others9.0%+4.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Aug 2019.

In this poll Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU ahead on 34.0%, followed by AfD on 30.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 5 to 8 Aug 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by ZDF-Politbarometer.

Compared with the previous Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 29 Aug 2019, Linke loses 10.0 points, AfD gains 5.5 points, Grüne loses 5.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen has CDU 3.6 points higher and BSW 2.4 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU +3.6average 30.4
  • BSW -2.4average 13.4
  • AfD -0.8average 30.8
  • Linke +0.2average 3.8
  • Grüne -0.1average 6.1
  • SPD ±0average 6.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.

CDU: 47 seatsAfD: 42 seatsBSW: 15 seatsSPD: 8 seatsGrüne: 8 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU47
  • AfD42
  • BSW15
  • SPD8
  • Grüne8
  • CDU + AfD89 of 120
  • CDU + BSW62 of 120
  • AfD + BSW + SPD65 of 120
  • AfD + BSW + Grüne65 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + Grüne63 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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