Single poll

INSA poll of 16 August 2024 for the Saxony state election

Commissioned by
Sächsische Zeitung / Freie Presse / Leipziger Volkszeitung
Fieldwork period
5 to 12 Aug 2024
Respondents
1,500
Method
Online
  • AfD32.0%±0
  • CDU29.0%-1.0
  • BSW15.0%±0
  • SPD5.0%±0
  • Grüne5.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler4.0%
  • FDP2.0%±0
  • Others3.0%-4.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Jun 2024.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 32.0%, followed by CDU on 29.0%. 1,500 people were surveyed from 5 to 12 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by Sächsische Zeitung / Freie Presse / Leipziger Volkszeitung.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Jun 2024, CDU loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 2.5 points lower and AfD 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -2.5average 31.5
  • AfD +2.0average 30.0
  • BSW +2.0average 13.0
  • SPD -1.5average 6.5
  • Grüne -1.5average 6.5
  • Linke +1.5average 3.5
  • Freie Wähler +1.0average 3.0
  • FDP -0.3average 2.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.

AfD: 42 seatsCDU: 38 seatsBSW: 19 seatsSPD: 7 seatsGrüne: 7 seatsLinke: 7 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • AfD42
  • CDU38
  • BSW19
  • SPD7
  • Grüne7
  • Linke7
  • AfD + CDU80 of 120
  • AfD + BSW61 of 120
  • CDU + BSW + SPD64 of 120
  • CDU + BSW + Grüne64 of 120
  • CDU + BSW + Linke64 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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