Single poll

Forsa poll of 20 August 2024 for the Saxony state election

Commissioned by
Stern / RTL
Fieldwork period
7 to 14 Aug 2024
Respondents
1,041
Method
Online
  • CDU33.0%+3.0
  • AfD30.0%-4.0
  • BSW13.0%+9.0
  • SPD6.0%-1.0
  • Grüne6.0%-2.0
  • Linke3.0%-3.0
  • Others9.0%+4.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 11 Jan 2024.

In this poll Forsa has CDU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 30.0%. 1,041 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by Stern / RTL.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 11 Jan 2024, BSW gains 9.0 points, AfD loses 4.0 points, CDU gains 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CDU 2.3 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU +2.3average 30.7
  • Linke -1.0average 4.0
  • AfD -0.7average 30.7
  • BSW -0.7average 13.7
  • SPD ±0average 6.0
  • Grüne ±0average 6.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

120 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning two constituencies.

CDU: 45 seatsAfD: 41 seatsBSW: 18 seatsSPD: 8 seatsGrüne: 8 seatsMajority from 61120of 120 seats
  • CDU45
  • AfD41
  • BSW18
  • SPD8
  • Grüne8
  • CDU + AfD86 of 120
  • CDU + BSW63 of 120
  • AfD + BSW + SPD67 of 120
  • AfD + BSW + Grüne67 of 120
  • CDU + SPD + Grüne61 of 120
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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