Saxony state election 2024: the result
In the Saxony state election on 1 September 2024, CDU became the largest party with 31.9%, 1.3 points ahead of AfD (30.6%). CDU and SPD have governed since then; how the alliance stands in the polls today is shown on the page with the current election polls.
- Biggest move since 2019
- Linke −5.9 · FDP −3.6 · Grüne −3.5
- Failed to clear the threshold
- FDP (0.9%), Piraten (0.3%)
- Government
- CDU + SPD: 51 of 120 seats
- Polls one week before
- off by 0.7 points per party on average, BSW overestimated by 1.6
- Turnout
- 74.4%
- Status
- official final result
Result of the 2024 state election
Turnout in the Saxony state election on 1 September 2024 was 74.4%. The Saxon Landtag has 120 seats; a majority needs 61.
Shares in percent, change on the election of 1 Sep 2019 in points. Parties below one percent are grouped as Others.
| Party | Votes 2024 (%) | 2019 (%) | Change | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union | 31.9% | 32.1% | -0.2 | 41 |
| Alternative für Deutschland | 30.6% | 27.5% | +3.1 | 40 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht | 11.8% | – | new | 15 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | 7.3% | 7.7% | -0.4 | 10 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 5.1% | 8.6% | -3.5 | 7 |
| Die Linke | 4.5% | 10.4% | -5.9 | 6 |
| Freie Wähler | 2.3% | 3.4% | -1.1 | 1 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei | 0.9% | 4.5% | -3.6 | – |
| Piratenpartei | 0.3% | 0.3% | ±0 | – |
| Others | 5.3% | 5.5% | -0.2 | – |
Source: state returning officer, compiled via wahlrecht.de. Official seats, 120 in total including overhang and compensatory seats. JSON · CSV
Seat distribution in the Saxon Landtag after the 2024 result
120 seats by the official result, including overhang and compensatory seats. Electoral threshold of 5%.
- CDU41
- AfD40
- BSW15
- SPD10
- Grüne7
- Linke6
- Freie Wähler1
Which alliances had a majority after the 2024 election
All two- and three-party alliances with a projected majority; the coalition actually formed is highlighted.
- CDU + SPDGovernment, no majority51 of 120
- CDU + AfD81 of 120
- CDU + BSW + SPD66 of 120
- AfD + BSW + SPD65 of 120
- CDU + BSW + Grüne63 of 120
- CDU + BSW + Linke62 of 120
- AfD + BSW + Grüne62 of 120
- AfD + BSW + Linke61 of 120
The polls in the last 30 days before the 2024 state election
10 polls between 9 Aug 2024 and 31 Aug 2024, each one available individually.
| Pollster | Published | CDU | AfD | BSW | SPD | Grüne | Linke | Freie Wähler | FDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug 2024 | 33 | 31 | 13.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Forsa | 30 Aug 2024 | 33 | 31 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 3 | – | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Aug 2024 | 33 | 30 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 4 | – | – | ||
| INSA | 24 Aug 2024 | 30 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | – | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 23 Aug 2024 | 33 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Infratest dimap | 22 Aug 2024 | 31 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 21 Aug 2024 | 34.5 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | – | 1 | ||
| Forsa | 20 Aug 2024 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 3 | – | – | ||
| INSA | 16 Aug 2024 | 29 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 9 Aug 2024 | 34 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4 | – | – | ||
| Min – Max | 29–34.5 | 30–32 | 11–15 | 5–7 | 4.5–6 | 3–5 | – | – | |||
For each party the lowest value in the table is marked orange and the highest green; the last row shows the range.
Last poll before the election: Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 31 Aug 2024
Who came closest before the 2024 election?
Deviation of each pollster's last poll from the result, by party in points. Ranked by mean absolute deviation.
| Pollster | Poll dated | CDU | AfD | BSW | SPD | Grüne | Linke | Freie Wähler | Ø abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Result 1 Sep 2024 | 31.9% | 30.6% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.3% | ||
| Forsa | 30 Aug 2024 (2 days before) | +1.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | -0.3 | +0.9 | -1.5 | – | 0.7 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 29 Aug 2024 (3 days before) | +1.1 | -0.6 | +0.2 | -1.3 | +0.9 | -0.5 | – | 0.8 |
| Infratest dimap | 22 Aug 2024 (10 days before) | -0.9 | -0.6 | +2.2 | -0.3 | +0.9 | -0.5 | – | 0.9 |
| Institut Wahlkreisprognose | 31 Aug 2024 (1 day before) | +1.1 | +0.4 | +1.7 | -1.3 | +0.4 | -1.5 | – | 1.1 |
| INSA | 24 Aug 2024 (8 days before) | -1.9 | +1.4 | +3.2 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | +0.7 | 1.3 |
Positive: the poll was above the result. Each pollster's last poll within 30 days before the election.