Single poll
INSA poll of 16 October 2026 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
- State
- North Rhine-Westphalia
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 13 Oct 2026
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 6 to 13 Oct 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 8 May 2026, CDU loses 8.0 points, AfD gains 4.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 4.5 points lower and Linke 3.0 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Oct 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU -4.5average 30.5
- Linke +3.0average 7.0
- SPD +2.5average 15.5
- AfD +1.5average 19.5
- Grüne -0.5average 16.5
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU51
- AfD42
- SPD36
- Grüne32
- Linke20
- CDU + AfD93 of 181
- CDU + SPD + Grüne119 of 181
- AfD + SPD + Grüne110 of 181
- CDU + SPD + Linke107 of 181
- CDU + Grüne + Linke103 of 181
- AfD + SPD + Linke98 of 181
- AfD + Grüne + Linke94 of 181
More
More polls
← INSA, 8 May 2026Average of all pollsters: North Rhine-WestphaliaSunday question North Rhine-Westphalia2025 federal election in North Rhine-WestphaliaChronicle 2026
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.