Sweden election forecast 2030: who is ahead?
General election in Sweden, expected September 2030. Polls as of 13 September 2026, 9 pollsters. S leads with 28.5%; in over 99% of the simulated outcomes S remains the largest party. Polls are not a prediction but the mood today; a lot can shift before the election.
If the general election were held today
Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 45 days, compared with the result of the general election 2026.
- S28.5%+0.5
- SD18.8%+1.3
- M17.5%-2.4
- C7.8%+0.8
- V7.5%-0.9
- MP6.9%+0.8
- KD6.4%+0.2
- L4.7%-0.6
- Others1.9%-1.2
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 4%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 13 Sep 2026.
What the Riksdag would look like today
349 seats. Four per cent threshold nationwide, or twelve per cent in one constituency. Sweden uses the modified Sainte-Laguë method with a first divisor of 1.2 and levelling seats; we simplify by using the classic method, which can differ by one or two seats for small parties.
- S101
- SD67
- M62
- C28
- V27
- MP24
- KD23
- L17
- S + SD + M230 of 349
- S + SD + C196 of 349
- S + SD + V195 of 349
- S + SD + MP192 of 349
- S + SD + KD191 of 349
- S + M + C191 of 349
- S + M + V190 of 349
- S + M + MP187 of 349
- S + M + KD186 of 349
- S + SD + L185 of 349
- S + M + L180 of 349
How likely are the majorities?
3,000 simulations with randomly varied polling figures; spread from sampling error and a flat systematic deviation of 1.5 points. This is the uncertainty of the polls today, not the uncertainty up to election day.
Majority in parliament
- S + SD + Mover 99%
- S + SD + Cover 99%
- S + SD + Vover 99%
- S + SD + MP99%
- S + SD + KD98%
- S + M + C99%
- S + M + V98%
- S + M + MP96%
- S + M + KD93%
- S + SD + L84%
- S + M + L69%
- S + SD32%
Clearing the electoral threshold
- L (±1.5)68%
- KD (±1.5)95%
- MP (±1.5)98%
- V (±1.5)99%
3,000 simulations. Spread per party from the sampling error of the average and the historical deviation of polls from election results. Method.
What has shifted since the last election
What this forecast can and cannot do
For Germany we have calculated how far polling averages were off depending on the distance to the election: two years out a good four points per party on average, one week out a good one and a half. For Sweden we do not have this history yet; the order of magnitude is likely to be similar. The analysis for Germany shows the table.
Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Opinion polling for the 2026 Swedish general election" (CC BY-SA 4.0). Election result: Valmyndigheten, Val till riksdagen 2026. Calculations: wahlergebnisse.io.