Single poll

Forsa poll of 27 March 2024 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

Commissioned by
NRW-Tageszeitungen
Fieldwork period
5 to 14 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,502
Method
Online
  • CDU37.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%-5.0
  • Grüne16.0%+2.0
  • AfD13.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • BSW4.0%
  • Linke2.0%-1.0
  • Others8.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Jun 2023.

In this poll Forsa has CDU ahead on 37.0%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 1,502 people were surveyed from 5 to 14 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by NRW-Tageszeitungen.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 16 Jun 2023, SPD loses 5.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has AfD 3.0 points lower and SPD 2.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -3.0average 16.0
  • SPD -2.8average 18.8
  • CDU +2.7average 34.3
  • Grüne -1.3average 17.3
  • FDP -0.8average 4.8
  • Linke ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 82 seatsSPD: 35 seatsGrüne: 35 seatsAfD: 29 seatsMajority from 91181of 181 seats
  • CDU82
  • SPD35
  • Grüne35
  • AfD29
  • CDU + SPD117 of 181
  • CDU + Grüne117 of 181
  • CDU + AfD111 of 181
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD99 of 181
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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