Single poll

INSA poll of 22 August 2025 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election

Commissioned by
NIUS
Fieldwork period
13 to 19 Aug 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU35.0%-1.0
  • SPD18.0%-4.0
  • AfD16.0%+7.0
  • Grüne13.0%-4.0
  • Linke8.0%+5.0
  • FDP4.0%-3.0
  • BSW3.0%
  • Others3.0%-3.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 May 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 35.0%, followed by SPD on 18.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 13 to 19 Aug 2025, method Online, commissioned by NIUS.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 3 May 2023, AfD gains 7.0 points, Linke gains 5.0 points, SPD loses 4.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU 3.5 points lower and SPD 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Aug 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU -3.5average 38.5
  • SPD +1.5average 16.5
  • AfD +1.0average 15.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 14.0
  • Linke +1.0average 7.0
  • FDP +1.0average 3.0
  • BSW +0.5average 2.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 71 seatsSPD: 36 seatsAfD: 32 seatsGrüne: 26 seatsLinke: 16 seatsMajority from 91181of 181 seats
  • CDU71
  • SPD36
  • AfD32
  • Grüne26
  • Linke16
  • CDU + SPD107 of 181
  • CDU + AfD103 of 181
  • CDU + Grüne97 of 181
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne94 of 181
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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