Forsa poll of 12 December 2024 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
- Commissioned by
- NRW-Tageszeitungen
- Fieldwork period
- 26 Nov 2024 to 4 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,508
- Method
- Online
- CDU41.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- AfD13.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%-2.0
- BSW3.0%-1.0
- Linke2.0%+1.0
- Others8.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 5 Aug 2024.
In this poll Forsa has CDU ahead on 41.0%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 1,508 people were surveyed from 26 Nov 2024 to 4 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by NRW-Tageszeitungen.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 5 Aug 2024, FDP loses 2.0 points, CDU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has SPD 2.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -2.0average 18.0
- CDU +1.0average 40.0
- BSW -1.0average 4.0
- Grüne ±0average 14.0
- AfD ±0average 13.0
- FDP ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU88
- SPD35
- Grüne30
- AfD28
- CDU + SPD123 of 181
- CDU + Grüne118 of 181
- CDU + AfD116 of 181
- SPD + Grüne + AfD93 of 181
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.