Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 3 September 2023 for the North Rhine-Westphalia state election
- Commissioned by
- Institut Wahlkreisprognose
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Aug 2023 to 2 Sep 2023
- Respondents
- 1,100
- Method
- Online
- CDU33.5%+2.5
- SPD19.5%-5.0
- AfD18.0%+5.5
- Grüne16.5%-2.5
- FDP4.5%-1.0
- Linke2.0%+0.5
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 12 Nov 2022.
In this poll Institut Wahlkreisprognose has CDU ahead on 33.5%, followed by SPD on 19.5%. 1,100 people were surveyed from 27 Aug 2023 to 2 Sep 2023, method Online, commissioned by Institut Wahlkreisprognose.
Compared with the previous Institut Wahlkreisprognose poll of 12 Nov 2022, AfD gains 5.5 points, SPD loses 5.0 points, CDU gains 2.5 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Institut Wahlkreisprognose has AfD 5.7 points higher and SPD 2.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +5.7average 12.3
- SPD -2.2average 21.7
- CDU -1.5average 35.0
- FDP -1.5average 6.0
- Linke -1.0average 3.0
- Grüne +0.8average 15.7
Seat projection from this poll
181 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CDU70
- SPD40
- AfD37
- Grüne34
- CDU + SPD110 of 181
- CDU + AfD107 of 181
- CDU + Grüne104 of 181
- SPD + AfD + Grüne111 of 181
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.