GMS poll of 3 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Dec 2023 to 2 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,004
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU33.0%+1.0
- AfD23.0%+1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%-2.0
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others5.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 12 Dec 2023.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 27 Dec 2023 to 2 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 12 Dec 2023, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CDU/CSU 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +1.7average 31.3
- AfD +1.1average 21.9
- SPD -0.9average 14.9
- FDP +0.9average 5.1
- Grüne -0.8average 13.8
- Linke -0.8average 3.8
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU234
- AfD163
- SPD99
- Grüne92
- FDP42
- CDU/CSU + AfD397 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne326 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne354 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.