GMS poll of 6 February 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 31 Jan 2024 to 5 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 1,012
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%-1.0
- AfD18.0%-5.0
- SPD16.0%+2.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW5.0%
- FDP4.0%-2.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Linke2.0%-1.0
- Others7.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Jan 2024.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,012 people were surveyed from 31 Jan 2024 to 5 Feb 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 3 Jan 2024, AfD loses 5.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 2.2 points lower and CDU/CSU 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 6 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.2average 20.2
- CDU/CSU +1.9average 30.1
- Linke -1.7average 3.7
- BSW -1.4average 6.4
- FDP -1.0average 5.0
- SPD +0.7average 15.3
- Grüne -0.3average 13.3
- Freie Wähler +0.2average 2.8
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU240
- AfD135
- SPD120
- Grüne98
- BSW37
- CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne338 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne353 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.