GMS poll of 12 December 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 11 Dec 2023
- Respondents
- 1,001
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU32.0%+5.0
- AfD22.0%-1.0
- Grüne15.0%±0
- SPD14.0%-2.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Linke2.0%-2.0
- Others7.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 19 Sep 2023.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,001 people were surveyed from 6 to 11 Dec 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 19 Sep 2023, CDU/CSU gains 5.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, Linke loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Linke 1.9 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke -1.9average 3.9
- CDU/CSU +1.3average 30.7
- Grüne +1.1average 13.9
- SPD -1.0average 15.0
- AfD +0.2average 21.8
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU229
- AfD158
- Grüne107
- SPD100
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD387 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD365 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.