GMS poll of 3 March 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 25 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026
- Respondents
- 1,016
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%+2.0
- AfD24.0%-3.0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- Linke10.0%±0
- FDP3.0%±0
- BSW3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others4.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 5 Jan 2026.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,016 people were surveyed from 25 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 5 Jan 2026, AfD loses 3.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Mar 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler -1.0average 3.0
- SPD +0.7average 15.3
- Linke -0.6average 10.6
- FDP -0.6average 3.6
- CDU/CSU +0.5average 25.5
- AfD -0.5average 24.5
- BSW -0.2average 3.2
- Grüne +0.1average 11.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU186
- AfD172
- SPD114
- Grüne86
- Linke72
- CDU/CSU + AfD358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne386 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne372 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.