GMS poll of 5 January 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 23 Dec 2025 to 5 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,027
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD27.0%+1.0
- CDU/CSU24.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- Linke10.0%-1.0
- BSW4.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%
- Others3.0%-3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 17 Nov 2025.
In this poll GMS has AfD ahead on 27.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,027 people were surveyed from 23 Dec 2025 to 5 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 17 Nov 2025, AfD gains 1.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.4average 25.6
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 25.4
- Freie Wähler -1.0average 3.0
- SPD +0.9average 14.1
- FDP -0.7average 3.7
- Linke -0.3average 10.3
- BSW +0.2average 3.8
- Grüne -0.1average 12.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD193
- CDU/CSU172
- SPD107
- Grüne86
- Linke72
- AfD + CDU/CSU365 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne386 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne365 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.