GMS poll of 13 August 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 12 Aug 2024
- Respondents
- 1,006
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD17.0%-1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%-2.0
- BSW8.0%+2.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others7.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 18 Jun 2024.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 6 to 12 Aug 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 18 Jun 2024, Grüne loses 2.0 points, BSW gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.1average 15.1
- CDU/CSU +1.0average 31.0
- Grüne +0.1average 11.9
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 2.1
- AfD ±0average 17.0
- BSW ±0average 8.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU229
- AfD122
- SPD100
- Grüne86
- BSW57
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.