GMS poll of 4 July 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU28.0%-1.0
- AfD20.0%+1.0
- SPD17.0%-1.0
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- FDP7.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others10.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 6 Jun 2023.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 28 Jun 2023 to 3 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 6 Jun 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has SPD 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.8average 18.8
- Linke -1.0average 5.0
- CDU/CSU +0.8average 27.2
- Grüne -0.7average 14.7
- AfD +0.6average 19.4
- FDP +0.4average 6.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU205
- AfD146
- SPD125
- Grüne103
- FDP51
- CDU/CSU + AfD351 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD330 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP359 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.