GMS poll of 23 July 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 22 Jul 2019
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU28.0%+2.0
- Grüne25.0%-1.0
- SPD13.0%±0
- AfD12.0%-1.0
- FDP8.0%±0
- Linke8.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 25 Jun 2019.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by Grüne on 25.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 17 to 22 Jul 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 25 Jun 2019, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Jul 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -0.9average 12.9
- CDU/CSU +0.8average 27.2
- Grüne +0.7average 24.3
- Linke -0.2average 8.2
- FDP -0.1average 8.1
- SPD ±0average 13.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU188
- Grüne167
- SPD87
- AfD80
- FDP54
- Linke54
- CDU/CSU + Grüne355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD355 of 630
- Grüne + SPD + AfD334 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.