GMS poll of 4 January 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Dec 2022 to 3 Jan 2023
- Respondents
- 1,002
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU29.0%+1.0
- SPD19.0%+1.0
- Grüne17.0%-4.0
- AfD14.0%+2.0
- FDP7.0%±0
- Linke5.0%+1.0
- Others9.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 2 Dec 2022.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 28 Dec 2022 to 3 Jan 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 2 Dec 2022, Grüne loses 4.0 points, AfD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jan 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.4average 18.4
- CDU/CSU +0.9average 28.1
- SPD -0.8average 19.8
- Linke +0.2average 4.8
- FDP +0.1average 6.9
- AfD ±0average 14.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU201
- SPD131
- Grüne118
- AfD97
- FDP48
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + SPD332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP346 of 630
- SPD + Grüne + AfD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.