GMS poll of 19 May 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 14 to 19 May 2025
- Respondents
- 1,012
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%±0
- AfD23.0%-2.0
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- Grüne12.0%+1.0
- Linke10.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler1.0%±0
- Others6.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 7 Apr 2025.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,012 people were surveyed from 14 to 19 May 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 7 Apr 2025, AfD loses 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has SPD 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD -1.6average 15.6
- AfD -1.2average 24.2
- Freie Wähler -1.0average 2.0
- FDP +0.6average 3.4
- Grüne +0.4average 11.6
- CDU/CSU -0.2average 26.2
- Linke +0.2average 9.8
- BSW +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU193
- AfD170
- SPD104
- Grüne89
- Linke74
- CDU/CSU + AfD363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne386 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke371 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne363 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke356 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke348 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.