GMS poll of 1 July 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 30 Jun 2025
- Respondents
- 1,007
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%+3.0
- AfD22.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%+1.0
- Linke9.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler1.0%±0
- Others4.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 19 May 2025.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 26 to 30 Jun 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 19 May 2025, CDU/CSU gains 3.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has Grüne 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +1.6average 11.4
- AfD -1.1average 23.1
- BSW -1.1average 4.1
- CDU/CSU +0.9average 28.1
- FDP +0.8average 3.2
- Linke -0.7average 9.7
- SPD -0.2average 15.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU208
- AfD158
- SPD107
- Grüne93
- Linke64
- CDU/CSU + AfD366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne408 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke379 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke365 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne358 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.