GMS poll of 30 September 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 29 Sep 2025
- Respondents
- 1,012
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%-3.0
- AfD25.0%+3.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%-2.0
- Linke10.0%+1.0
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- BSW3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler1.0%±0
- Others6.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 1 Jul 2025.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,012 people were surveyed from 24 to 29 Sep 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 1 Jul 2025, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points, AfD gains 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -1.0average 4.0
- AfD -0.6average 25.6
- Linke -0.6average 10.6
- FDP -0.3average 3.3
- CDU/CSU +0.2average 25.8
- SPD +0.2average 14.8
- Grüne -0.2average 11.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU188
- AfD181
- SPD109
- Grüne80
- Linke72
- CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne377 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke369 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke340 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.