Single poll
GMS poll of 12 July 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 5 to 11 Jul 2018
- Respondents
- 1,006
- Method
- Unbekannt
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 1,006 people were surveyed from 5 to 11 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 17 May 2018, CDU/CSU loses 4.0 points, AfD gains 3.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.3average 15.7
- SPD -0.8average 17.8
- Grüne -0.6average 12.6
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
- Linke +0.2average 9.8
- FDP -0.2average 9.2
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU199
- SPD113
- AfD113
- Grüne79
- Linke66
- FDP60
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD425 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne391 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne391 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP372 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP325 of 630
More
More polls
← GMS, 17 May 2018GMS, 1 Aug 2018 →Average of all pollsters: BundestagSunday question BundestagChronicle 2018
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.