GMS poll of 1 August 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 25 to 31 Jul 2018
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- SPD17.0%±0
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%+1.0
- FDP10.0%+1.0
- Linke10.0%±0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 12 Jul 2018.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 25 to 31 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 12 Jul 2018, AfD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Aug 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP +1.3average 8.7
- SPD -1.1average 18.1
- AfD +0.3average 15.7
- CDU/CSU -0.2average 30.2
- Linke +0.2average 9.8
- Grüne -0.1average 13.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU197
- SPD111
- AfD105
- Grüne85
- FDP66
- Linke66
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD413 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne393 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne387 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke374 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.