GMS poll of 24 January 2019 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 23 Jan 2019
- Respondents
- 1,003
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- Grüne19.0%±0
- SPD14.0%±0
- AfD13.0%-2.0
- FDP10.0%+1.0
- Linke9.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 13 Dec 2018.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 16 to 23 Jan 2019, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 13 Dec 2018, AfD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP +1.4average 8.6
- SPD -1.1average 15.1
- CDU/CSU +0.9average 30.1
- AfD -0.8average 13.8
- Grüne ±0average 19.0
- Linke ±0average 9.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU203
- Grüne125
- SPD92
- AfD85
- FDP66
- Linke59
- CDU/CSU + Grüne328 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + FDP + Linke328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.