Single poll

GMS poll of 13 December 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
GMS
Fieldwork period
6 to 12 Dec 2018
Respondents
1,005
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+3.0
  • Grüne19.0%+3.0
  • AfD15.0%-3.0
  • SPD14.0%-1.0
  • FDP9.0%-1.0
  • Linke9.0%-1.0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 11 Oct 2018.

In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by Grüne on 19.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 6 to 12 Dec 2018, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.

Compared with the previous GMS poll of 11 Oct 2018, CDU/CSU gains 3.0 points, Grüne gains 3.0 points, AfD loses 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has CDU/CSU 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Dec 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.6average 28.4
  • Grüne -0.7average 19.7
  • SPD -0.7average 14.7
  • AfD +0.4average 14.6
  • FDP +0.2average 8.8
  • Linke -0.2average 9.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 197 seatsGrüne: 125 seatsAfD: 98 seatsSPD: 92 seatsFDP: 59 seatsLinke: 59 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU197
  • Grüne125
  • AfD98
  • SPD92
  • FDP59
  • Linke59
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD387 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke348 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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