GMS poll of 11 October 2018 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 10 Oct 2018
- Respondents
- 1,007
- Method
- Unbekannt
- CDU/CSU27.0%±0
- AfD18.0%±0
- Grüne16.0%+1.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- FDP10.0%+1.0
- Linke10.0%±0
- Others4.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 27 Sep 2018.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,007 people were surveyed from 4 to 10 Oct 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 27 Sep 2018, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, GMS has AfD 1.8 points higher and SPD 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Oct 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.8average 16.2
- SPD -1.8average 16.8
- FDP +1.0average 9.0
- CDU/CSU -0.5average 27.5
- Grüne +0.3average 15.7
- Linke -0.2average 10.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU177
- AfD118
- Grüne105
- SPD98
- FDP66
- Linke66
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD393 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD380 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke341 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD321 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.