GMS poll of 4 January 2021 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- GMS
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Dec 2020 to 4 Jan 2021
- Respondents
- 1,004
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU37.0%±0
- Grüne18.0%-1.0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- AfD9.0%-1.0
- Linke8.0%+1.0
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Others6.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous GMS poll of 9 Nov 2020.
In this poll GMS has CDU/CSU ahead on 37.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,004 people were surveyed from 29 Dec 2020 to 4 Jan 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by GMS.
Compared with the previous GMS poll of 9 Nov 2020, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jan 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +0.9average 36.1
- AfD -0.7average 9.7
- Grüne -0.6average 18.6
- FDP -0.3average 6.3
- SPD +0.1average 15.9
- Linke +0.1average 7.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU248
- Grüne121
- SPD107
- AfD60
- Linke54
- FDP40
- CDU/CSU + Grüne369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP342 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.